Market brief — 26 October 2026

Weekend risk intensified after Iran-backed Houthis again fired drones and missiles toward Riyadh, even as two terminals at the Saudi capital's airport reopened. The renewed attacks kept the possibility of damage to Saudi energy and transport infrastructure in focus after Brent crude settled Friday at $116.72 a barrel, its highest level since 2022. Oil had already gained more than 6% for the week. Any further supply disruption would transmit quickly through inflation expectations, freight costs and import bills, particularly for Asian economies. The escalation also complicates the Federal Reserve outlook because expensive energy can preserve price pressure even when demand-sensitive assets weaken.

Crypto markets provided the clearest weekend price signal. Bitcoin broke below $80,000 on Saturday and traded as low as roughly $79,300 before recovering toward $80,500 on Binance. Ether fell to about $2,282 and later stabilized near $2,345. The move was amplified by forced deleveraging, with hundreds of millions of dollars in long positions liquidated as traders who had expected a rebound were closed out. Institutional flows also weakened the demand picture: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million of net withdrawals in the latest reported session, their largest daily outflow since June, while Ether funds also saw net redemptions. The partial recovery reduced immediate stress but did not restore the levels lost before the weekend.

Gold entered the new week near an important psychological threshold after spot bullion finished around $3,996 and futures near $4,008. The metal fell roughly 4% over the week despite worsening Middle East risk, showing that rate expectations, profit taking and cash raising outweighed traditional haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday near 4.99%. Futures markets assigned a high probability that the Fed will hold rates at its October meeting, but oil above $116 keeps the possibility of tighter policy later in the year alive. That combination leaves gold caught between geopolitical support and the opportunity cost of restrictive rates.

The weekend developments raise the stakes for both US and Vietnamese equities when cash trading resumes. The Dow closed Friday at 52,215.16 after a 1.2% decline, while the VN-Index had risen 0.77% to 1,774.15 and the VN30 gained 0.75% to 1,907.09. Vietnam's advance was supported by domestic demand, but foreign investors sold a net VND478 billion. Renewed pressure on oil supply could favor energy producers while weighing on transport, consumer margins and the external balance. The combination of crypto deleveraging, higher geopolitical risk and the approaching Fed decision makes capital-flow quality more important than headline index moves.