22/09/2026 - Vietnam market outlook and stronger Dollar Index

After a strong rally throughout 2025, the Vietnamese stock market has entered 2026 with several significant corrections, at times falling more than 10% from its early-year highs.

Despite positive catalysts, particularly expectations surrounding Vietnam’s market upgrade, these developments have so far not been sufficient to push the market sustainably into a new price range.

In my view, the risk of a deeper correction is increasing. The coming period could share some characteristics with 2022: a broader medium-term downtrend interrupted by relatively strong short-term rallies.

The ATC session on September 21, 2026 helped prevent the market from falling significantly further, and the late-session recovery could extend into the next few trading sessions. However, short-term rebounds should not necessarily be interpreted as confirmation that the broader market trend has reversed.

From a macro perspective, the recent increase in oil prices is adding renewed inflationary pressure. At the same time, a persistently restrictive Federal Reserve policy stance, together with expectations that interest rates could remain elevated or potentially rise further, is providing support for the US Dollar Index (DXY).

If inflationary pressures, elevated energy prices, and restrictive monetary conditions persist, the US dollar could potentially enter a more sustained medium- to long-term uptrend. This would become an important macro variable for emerging markets, including Vietnam.

For this reason, I believe investors should distinguish carefully between a short-term market rebound and a genuine reversal of the broader medium-term trend.